Two things landed on Thursday that change the math on Q4 inventory.
Drewry published its World Container Index for September 3. The composite held flat at $4,465 per 40-foot container, but the transpacific lanes moved against you. Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 5 percent to $7,185 and Shanghai to New York rose 3 percent to $9,587. Asia to Europe went the other way, with Shanghai to Rotterdam down 5 percent to $4,092. Capacity is pointed at the lanes that feed US warehouses, and price is following. (Drewry World Container Index, September 3)
The same day, the Panama Canal Authority's step-down schedule took the maximum draft at the Neopanamax locks to 47.5 feet. It was 48 feet on August 26. Gatun Lake is low and the restrictions keep tightening. (Supply Chain Dive, August 18)
Neither number is dramatic on its own. Put them against the calendar and they become a deadline.
The canal charges step up next week
A shallower draft means fewer boxes per ship. Carriers price that separately from the base rate, and the increases are already filed.
CMA CGM raises its Panama Canal Adjustment Factor to $500 per TEU on September 10, up from $100, on Far East cargo bound for the US East and Gulf Coasts. MSC raises its canal surcharge to $149 per TEU on September 12, also up from $100, assessed on gate-in date. Hapag-Lloyd has been charging $130 per TEU since August 15. Ocean Network Express has been at $150 per TEU since August 10. (Container News, August 13)
Notice what every one of those charges has in common. They apply to East and Gulf Coast cargo. West Coast entry does not transit the canal and does not pay them.
China closes for most of two weeks
Now the calendar. Mid-Autumn Festival runs September 25 to 27. National Day Golden Week runs October 1 to 7. Between them sit three working days, September 28 through 30. SEKO expects backlogs from that final window to run into mid-October. (SEKO Logistics, August 25)
Factories do not ship during those weeks. Ports run thin. A supplier promising a cargo-ready date of September 29 is technically ahead of the holiday and commercially behind it, because nothing gated in that late reaches a vessel before the shutdown.
The ships are not running on time either. Sea-Intelligence put July global schedule reliability at 56.4 percent, with late vessels averaging 6.06 days late, which we went through last Monday. Roughly half of sailings miss their window, and the ones that miss it miss by most of a week. Plan around the delay instead of hoping to dodge it.
What this means for your brand
Here is the position, and it is a specific one. If you import for Q4 and you do not fulfill from the East Coast, get a West Coast entry quote this month.
Thursday's Drewry numbers put $2,402 per 40-foot container between Los Angeles and New York before a single surcharge is added. The canal charges only widen that on September 10 and September 12, and they only apply to the East and Gulf routing. For a brand fulfilling from central Ohio, Los Angeles entry plus intermodal rail deserves a real quote rather than a shrug. Our building reaches 90 percent of US customers in two days by ground, and the last mile does not care which coast the container came through. The inbound leg is where the money is sitting right now.
Four things worth doing this week.
Get cargo-ready dates in writing for September 22 or earlier. Not "before Golden Week." A date. A supplier who will not commit to one has answered the question.
Ask your forwarder for the canal surcharge on your specific booking. The amount turns on the carrier, the lane, the container size, and the gate-in date. The same CMA CGM booking costs $100 per TEU gated in on September 9 and $500 per TEU on September 11.
Give your 3PL the landing dates now. Receiving a container in early November costs everyone more than receiving it in mid-October, because November is when the pick floor is already full. Hand your warehouse and storage team the ASN dates and they can schedule the dock around your outbound ramp instead of against it.
Split the shipment if the timing is tight. Air the top sellers, ocean the rest. That is expensive. It still beats a stockout on your best SKU during Cyber Week.
The outbound half of this squeeze is already priced. UPS opens its peak surcharge window on September 27 and FedEx opens on September 28, which we broke down alongside the UPS schedule. USPS temporary peak prices are still pending at the Postal Regulatory Commission with an October 4 start date.
So the last week of September carries your inbound deadline and the start of your outbound cost increase at the same time. That is the week to have already decided, not the week to decide. If you want your landing dates mapped against your peak ramp before then, send us your inbound schedule.
FAQ
What is the real cutoff for getting Q4 inventory out of China?
Work backward from September 25, not October 1. Mid-Autumn Festival starts the slowdown, and the working days after it are for paperwork and exceptions rather than new production. September 22 leaves room for a documentation problem. September 29 buys an October sailing at best, and SEKO expects that queue to run into mid-October.
Does West Coast entry save money if my warehouse is in the Midwest?
Often, and the gap is wider this month than usual. The canal surcharges apply only to East and Gulf Coast cargo, so West Coast bookings skip them entirely, on top of the $2,402 spread Drewry measured between Los Angeles and New York on September 3. Rail from the West Coast to Ohio adds cost and days, so run the full landed number rather than assuming either answer. The routing is worth repricing this week, because the inputs just changed.